• Bitcoin bounced between steep drops and quick gains, now sliding slightly after nearing recent highs.
• Ark Invest sees Bitcoin hitting up to $1.5 million, banking on rising institutional interest.

Bitcoin has been swinging between steep increases and short-lived retreats over the past few weeks. After it fell to $76,273, it went up to $104,974. Although it came close to that high bar, it couldn’t sustain itself and traded at $104,920 following a 0.50% decline during the past 24 hours. However, long-term forecasts by Ark Invest indicate massive moves might be looming ahead.

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, made her prediction in an interview with CNBC and presented a long-term view. The firm’s base scenario predicts Bitcoin at $700,000 to $750,000 by the end of the decade. Under an aggressive scenario, it goes all the way to $1.5 million. These forecasts were made by David Puell, who is the market analyst at Ark Invest.

Wood pointed out how investor sentiment is slowly shifting. She opines that more and more people see Bitcoin as a safe repository of funds. That potentially makes it a challenger to gold in that role. Institutional involvement is in its nascent stages now, she said but is poised to be a potent growth driver.

Ark Invest’s Strategy and Institutional Trends

Ark Invest has backed its forecast with active investing. With its ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, it has invested an additional $58 million in Bitcoin. Wood emphasized that institutional investing is still just starting out as he asserted that “Institutions are just testing the waters.” Should they increase their participation, it might drive Bitcoin significantly higher in the years to come.

From a security perspective, Wood also referred to Bitcoin’s capacity to protect its holders against unjust seizure of wealth. This, she said, could be achieved either through inflation or confiscation at a state level. Because Bitcoin’s supply is constant and not regulated by central banks, it possesses stability that traditional currencies do not have.

In the case of deflationary times, Wood further added that Bitcoin also has an advantage: transparency. In her view, this characteristic could prevent the kind of trust-based collapse that occurred in 2008 during the financial crisis.

We won’t have an 08-09 with Bitcoin, everything is decentralized, no obfuscation,

Bitcoin’s Growth Needed to Reach Targets

In spite of recent volatility in markets, Bitcoin would need to increase significantly in its long-term estimates according to Ark’s targets. Presently, the asset is 57% up year-to-date. After that, the base-case target figure of $710,000 would need a 575% jump.

In a bear case scenario, Bitcoin would have to increase by 1,330% to $1.5 million. Even more bearish is a more conservative estimate that anticipates growth of about 185% to $300,000. Wood’s optimism about these prices is based on both Bitcoin’s finite nature and its growth as an alternative store of wealth.

• Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $107,000 before a fast 4% drop, wiping out $673 million in positions. 
• Mixed signals from macro factors and resistance levels leave traders cautious.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action is back in focus. The cryptocurrency briefly touched $107,000 before reversing sharply. This move has left traders questioning whether the largest digital asset is beginning a sustainable breakout or another bull trap. In light of this, key insights are worth watching for the top coin moving forward.

BTC Hits Its Highest Weekly Close But Quickly Reverses

The first major insight is that Bitcoin recorded a weekly close at around $106,500. Despite briefly climbing to $107,000, BTC corrected promptly by about 4%, dragging the price back to nearly $103,000. 

Notably, this pattern shows a liquidity grab, a tactic where the market pushes beyond a resistance zone, only to reverse and trap traders. This trend liquidated many positions, totaling $673 million across the crypto space in just 24 hours. Analysts say this classic trap took out shorts and punished late long entries.

CoinGlass data added more context by revealing renewed ask liquidity at $107,500, which acted as a ceiling. Bids dropped to $102,000 were removed. In total, $673 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours. 

Still many market participants are optimistic about the Bitcoin price breakout. In a recent update, we covered that BTC’s technical indicators reflect bullish momentum. 

According to the update, if BTC can close above $105,000 on the daily chart, analysts believe a push to a high of $109,000 is possible.

Caution Reigns as Macro Triggers Add Pressure

The second insight highlights how traders are staying cautious. Many avoid buying at current levels, especially since Bitcoin is near a major resistance zone. 

Trader CrypNuevo emphasized that the risk-to-reward ratio does not favor entering now, pointing out that a confirmed breakout would be safer. High timeframe charts remain bullish, and April’s retest of the 50-week exponential moving average still supports longer-term optimism.

In addition to this, macro uncertainty remains in focus. Ongoing U.S. trade deals and the recent Moody’s credit downgrade have created market volatility. Stocks dipped slightly, and this climate has helped Bitcoin stay resilient. 

A weaker U.S. dollar could work in BTC’s favor. As noted in our earlier post, BlackRock CEO warns U.S. debt may push Bitcoin to challenge the dollar as a global reserve currency. However, rate cut hopes are cooling, with FedWatch Tool data showing only a 12% chance of cuts in June. Jobless claims this week may shift expectations further.

Another major insight to watch is the crypto market’s correlation with stocks, which paints a mixed picture. Crypto has shown resilience, but a clear trend between equities and Bitcoin remains unclear, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors.

Lastly, the exchange volume delta is being watched closely. Analysts from CryptoQuant note that it is a key signal in spotting whether BTC’s breakout attempts have strong backing or are simply short-lived liquidity moves.

With Bitcoin still hovering near crucial levels, the BTC bets from Metaplanet and Strategy remain a bullish factor to note. The coming days may decide if this was a real move or just another trap. MarketCap data shows that the coin was trading at $102,964.99, down 0.82%.

• Bitcoin’s price surged past 106,000 yesterday and reached 106,597, but the token has cooled down to trade at $103,237.
• Currently, BTC enthusiasts are bullish, and some key metrics suggest that BTC will soon rally.

Today, the overall crypto market is displaying mixed sentiment. The market capitalization has dropped by a slight 1.57% to be at 3.26 trillion. Additionally, the crypto fear and Greed index is reading 71, which tells us that the market is leaning into greed.

Most importantly, it is worth noting that the Altcoin season indicator is reading  25/100. This suggests we’re not in an altcoin season, and Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the market right now, and even though the altcoins recorded double-digit gains, that may have been a short-term rally.

What is fuelling the bullish Sentiment?

One factor that is making the bulls more optimistic is the surge in call options. These are simply financial derivatives that give traders the right to purchase Bitcoin at a pre-determined price. This is actually betting that the price of BTC will rise, hence the increased optimism.

Beyond the options market, some whale movements have also driven this. According to onchain data, May 17 saw 53.7K BTC accumulated by large holders with over 10,ooo. This movement often reflects a surge in long-term confidence in the asset, which in turn can lead to the smaller investors following suit. Also, holders have seen negative flows since August, meaning that more BTC has been moving out of the exchange and into long-term storage. Low exchange reserves create a supply squeeze effect, causing less Bitcoin to be available for trading, which, if and when it remains strong, can lead to the price appreciating.

One analyst, Alex Adler Jr, pointed out that short-term sellers in 2025 have been far more cautious when it comes to building bearish positions, especially when compared to the aggression seen during the 2021 bull run. Adler further adds that, “The only notable long-squeeze occurred during the correction around the $80K level. This shift in sentiment suggests that bears have become more risk-averse, a generally bullish signal.” This again suggests that the bears are neither as confident as they once were nor are they willing to bet big against it.

In an insight shared on CryptoQuant by Shayan Markets, Bitcoin has reclaimed the Realized Price of the 3–6 month holder cohort,  a group considered crucial to market momentum. This means that these mid-term holders are back in profit, and historically, such reclaims have preceded strong upward moves. “However, a short-term corrective retracement toward this level, currently around $98K, remains a likely scenario, “Shayan Concluded.

Meanwhile, on the derivatives market, Coinglass data reveals that Open interest has slightly increased by .1,86% to $68 billion, and trading volume has surged to 158.23 billion after a parabolic 147.94% increase. Options volume has also skyrocketed by  404.63% to reach 4.61 billion, which is a clear display of a spike in hedging strategies.

At the same time, options open interest has climbed to $39.43 billion, up 3.05%, while BTC’s trading volume has risen by 84.99% to be at $ 64 billion. Our market data reveals that Bitcoin is still below its all-time high of 109,000 as it currently trades at $103,237.